I recall my first day of American Film History class in college. Dr. Harris Ross, a certified film historian, became my favorite professor. He legitimized my obsession with all things cinema. And I still hear his words, tinged with an Arkansas accent, “Film is both art and business.”
Yes, it seems like an obvious statement. Doesn’t just about everything boil down to economics? Yet, throughout the semester we took a deeper dive of movies as both art and business and a product for consumption. It’s a complicated dynamic, and sometimes, a hapless union. Sure, the script sizzled on the page, recognized talent signed on, and millions were poured into producing a film guaranteed to turn a profit. But anyone in the business knows there are no guarantees for success. It’s a roll of the dice, especially in the days when movies depended on box office receipts.
When I studied screenwriting at Act One: Writing for Hollywood, the industry relied heavily on box office forecasting. These forecasters practically dictated what projects should be greenlighted. Males between the ages of 14 and 16 were the largest box office demographic, and the teen genre was born. Movies like American Pie, Scream, I Know What You Did Last Summer, Varsity Blues, and Matrix were the box office draws. Teen girls flocked to Mean Girls, Clueless, and Cruel Intentions to name a few. Baby boomer audiences faded, and the first wave of millennials filled theatre seats.
At the time, video sales were ancillary to theatre openings. According to records, the last movie released on videocassette was A History of Violence in 2006. The next wave, DVDs, became the popular phenomenon. Many of my friends had no intention of going to a movie theatre. The reigning sentiment was “I’ll wait for the DVD.” In the nascent years of Netflix, it was all about a subscription service and having DVDs mailed and returned.
Even so, audiences are as unpredictable as the stock market. There will always be some level of profitability in big budget movies or sleeper hits.
But the question remains. What makes a movie successful in the current era of streaming? An obvious answer is the number of subscriptions to streaming services. No doubt, Netflix pays producers to develop films that their decision makers believe will prove successful. Yet, all movies, whether streamed or released in theatres, have fierce audience competition with the limited television series and binge-watching phenomenon which isn’t going anywhere.
No doubt, the pandemic skewed in favor of home theatres. But I think it’s plausible that theatre releases will make a comeback. Why? Entertainment, in essence, translates into escapism and time away from the home front.
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In 2022, we’ve experienced inflation, global strife with war in Ukraine, and the unceasing threat of climate change. How will this affect the entertainment industry? Well, if we look at Netflix in the second week of April, their stock plummeted 35%. Their rationale is a loss of subscribers in Russia and increases in streaming competition.
As I write this blog, the movie The Bad Guys opened on April 22, 2022, exclusively in theatres and made $24 million in its domestic opening weekend. Yes, audiences are returning to theatres, especially for family-friendly stories, the continuing trend. Disney forecasters missed the mark by pulling their family films from theatre releases back in March.
Sure, convenience is always a huge plus which spells ongoing success for streaming platforms. But entertainment is a volatile, ever-changing business, and it moves in a cycle or circular fashion.
I believe that there will always be a movie theatre audience. Every successive generation will want the experience of escapism. Sure, the living room or home theatre has its place, but it doesn’t really replace a darkened theatre.
As writers, we tell stories we’re passionate about. Audiences are ephemeral but your work is, hopefully, evergreen. Art first, and if fortune follows, so be it!